IS THERE A BETTER SOLUTION FOR THE GAZA WAR THAN A TEMPORARY CEASEFIRE AND PARTIAL HOISTAGE RELEASE?

That's not really a resolution at all, and it plays into the hands of both Hamas and Netanyahu, neither of whom care about anyone but themselves.

Note: this post is intended for serious thinking people who genuinely want an end to the violence, and who support a two state solution. If anyone’s idea of a resolution is to end the State of Israel, or remove all the Palestinians from Gaza, they really don’t belong on this site. If you feel moved to post a comment, please say something original; we’ve all seen the tropes, cliches, memes and mindless chants so often that we ignore them.

IS A TEMPORARY CEASEFIRE AND A PARTIAL HOSTAGE RELEASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PALESTINIAN PRISONERS THE ONLY SENSIBLE PATH FORWARD?

In a word, no.

It is one possible step towards a hoped-for end to the war and hostage torture, but two observations leap at anyone who examines this option: 1.) it’s not going to work, because neither Hamas or Bibi have any incentive to end hostilities; 2.) it offers no guarantees that Hamas will be completely dislodged as a military and political force in the region, which is the entire purpose of Israel’s actions.

Why do I say neither Hamas nor Netanyahu have any incentives to reach an end to the violence?

That conclusion is dictated by facts on the ground.

Netanyahu is doing all he can to avoid a return to the defendant’s seat in his corruption trials. He’s tried to subvert the judiciary and the prosecution, hoping for immunity or at least dismissal.

On top of his criminal trials, Netanyahu is facing an inquiry into his actions or lack thereof before, during, and after the October 7 pogrom. Why did he ignore sound advice about a planned attack, given to him by the military and intelligence experts? Why were so many troops needlessly deployed to protect illegal West Bank settlements, thereby allowing hours of the Hamas rampage of rape, murder and arson? Finally, Israel needs an independent State inquiry into the conduct of the war, partly to assuage supporters of the ICC, but mainly to find out exactly what occurred in given situations, and if there were errors, make sure they don’t occur again, and if intentional, punish the guilty. That’s what democratic nations do. Israel is not comparable to Hamas, and must meet higher standards.

Yahya Sinwar, military leader of Hamas, under indictment in US for 40 murders of US citizens on Oct 7. (Courtesy Getty Images.)

Hamas has to deal with US criminal indictments. That’s big trouble for them.

Hamas knows they are deadenders. Any deal they would agree to right now must allow them to not only survive longer, but to regroup, refortify, get more supplies, plan more terror attacks. They know Israel is never going to allow that to happen, and even if Netanyahu can be ousted, that part will not change.

Hamas has legal jeopardy that Netanyahu really doesn’t face. Hamas leaders have been indicted in the United States for murdering 40 Americans on October 7. That’s a whole different ball game from the ICC, a toothless tiger which relies upon voluntary membership and cooperation, neither of which they have gotten from the US. (Mongolia, an ICC member, just thumbed their nose at ICC by hosting Putin, an indicted child kidnapper.) A US criminal indictment is hardly toothless. Hamas just witnessed the US essentially kidnap an indicted Mexican narco terrorist, when the government of Mexico refused to honor an extradition treaty. They’ve also seen both Israel and the US knock off terrorists in countries where the terrorists thought they were safe. And US prosecutors are not bound by any deals Hamas cuts with other nations. The legal woes of Sinwar and other terrorist leaders are not going to disappear, but better to fight extradition in Qatar than to die like rats in a flooded tunnel.

Unless the Hamas leaders are completely isolated and deluded, they must recognize that military or political victory is an impossibility. They’ve caused the near-complete destruction of their society and infrastructure, at least 24,000 innocent Gazans have died (Hamas health agency reports count the 17-18,000 fighters killed by IDF in the death total of over 40,000.) Even the most brainwashed Hamas must understand that Israel is never going to allow them to remain at all, let alone as part of a new civil authority. Their last hope of any “victory” is to delay until something miraculous breaks their way, or maybe Israel is somehow pressured to accept a Hamas presence.

Neither is going to happen. Hamas is finished as a governing power in Gaza, and it’s just a question of when and how they are completely dislodged.

Bibi Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, on trial for the first of four corruption cases, suspended during the war. (Courtesy CNN.)

Netanyahu’s legal fears are domestic, not international.

I doubt the ICC judges are going to accede to prosecutor Karim Khan’s request for arrest warrants for Israeli or Hamas leaders. There is a serious question of jurisdiction, based on the Oslo Accords preempting the ICC, and because jurisdiction does not exist where the defendant nations or leaders are conducting their own fair and impartial investigation. Israel is doing so, through the IDF, and has punished IDF soldiers and settlers in the past. They are debating the nature of an even broader inquiry.

The debate going on in Israel at the moment is between Netanyahu’s attempts to create a low-level government inquiry he can control, versus the Attorney General saying it must be independent and impartial, a State investigation, not a government one. (Israel has a parliamentary system, where Netanyahu, as Prime Minister, is head of government, but President Herzog is the Head of State, completely independent of the government.) Israel has an independent judicial system, and anyone objecting to either inquiry form can take their case there for a fair and impartial decision. Either of these should preempt any ICC jurisdiction.

So while neither Hamas not Netanyahu face any serious threats from the ICC, they both face genuine legal threats elsewhere: Hamas from the US, Netanyahu from Israeli prosecutors. That’s why having either in power is a serious obstacle to any sensible negotiation, but we’re stuck with them now, and even so, there are ways out.

HAMAS CAN END THIS ANY TIME THEY WANT: THEY CAN RELEASE ALL HOSTAGES, END ROCKET AND TERROR ATTACKS, AND LEAVE GAZA WITH A PROMISE TO NEVER RETURN, IN EXCHANGE FOR THEIR LIVES.