IT'S NOT THE POLLS, IT'S THE UNDENIABLE FACTS ON THE GROUND
Polls have been highly inaccurate for years, but we don't need them to see that the Democrats are on the ascent, and the Republicans on the decline.
I don’t place much faith in polls.
How can I? If they were really predictive and accurate, Hillary Clinton would have been elected in 2016, Brexit would have failed, Netanyahu would have lost his last two elections, and there would have been a Republican wave in 2022.
Polls are at best a snapshot of how voters in a particular place feel at that time about a particular candidate or issue. It does not even assure that those polled will feel the same way five minutes later, after seeing a political commercial or hearing a news story.
We know polling is inaccurate and subjective, because different polls produce different results on the same issues. That’s why some polls have Kamala ahead in certain states, while others have it tied or have Trump leading in one or two those “swing” states.
If all polling shows the same trend, despite differing numbers, it’s reasonable to conclude the polling detects a trend or shift. In mid July, Trump was ahead of Biden nationally and in most swing states. Now, we have the opposite results. It’s fair to say polls have detected a massive shift to Democrats since Kamala replaced Biden. It’s helped Senate candidates and there’s no reason to doubt a strong top of the ticket helps every rung of the ladder.
However, to assess the state of the race, there is a lot more evidence to examine than polling, which really is not evidence at all. It’s essentially an educated opinion.
What other evidence shows Kamala Harris and the Democrats surging, while Trump and the Republicans sag?
Let’s start with money.
In August, Kamala Harris raised $300 million. Trump raised $130 million.
Considering that most of Trump’s campaign funds are diverted for his legal defense and other personal expenses, versus Kamala having no legal expense burdens, and she and Doug Emhoff have whatever they need to live on, one need not be a CPA to understand that Trump is at a serious disadvantage when it comes to funds. I read just last night that as a result of this financial drought, the GOP is suspending ads in New Hampshire, writing the state off to Kamala.
How about volunteers? Since the Convention alone, the Harris campaign has received over 200,000 requests to fill volunteer shifts! Out here in Hillsborough County, Florida, where I am a Democratic Party activist, we can barely keep up with putting the surge of volunteers to work!
I don’t have any recent numbers for Trump campaign volunteers. I know they have had many volunteers, and they also maintained a good field operation; I am unable to assess how the shortage of money will impact the latter. I heard the RNC issue a recent call for 100,000 volunteer poll watchers. We Dems have lists of poll watchers who have been trained, and are continually training more. We can activate poll watchers and greeters when needed. That the GOP is issuing a call for so many so close to the start of early voting suggest they are experiencing volunteer problems.
Then there are the scores of high-ranking Trump appointees and elected Republican officials flocking to support the Democratic ticket this year. Over 50 former Trump appointees, including top cabinet officers, along with several GOP Senators, governors, and local officials have endorse Harris-Walz, including the current Mayor of Mesa, AZ, the immediate past Lt. Governor of Georgia, former House members Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. Trump’s VP, Mike Pence, refuses to endorse him; same with former Presidential nominee Mitt Romney, former VP nominee Paul Ryan, former President George W Bush, and former VP Dick Cheney.
You don’t see Democrats running away from our ticket!
Those are objective, quantifiable evidence of the shift from Republican momentum to Democratic momentum. There are also several more subjective but ultimately confirmable factors as well. For starters, the way the public perceives the candidates.
It’s no surprise that Trump’s unfavorability is the highest imaginable, but his cult followers will stick with him to the bitter end. That’s baked into the Trump phenomena.
What makes this third Trump run a little more different is the Vice Presidential nominee, JD Vance. Vice Presidential nominees are supposed to balance the ticket, maybe soften some sharp edges at the top of the ticket, maybe offer a slightly different temperament. JD Vance does none of that, and is already being hailed as the worst VP candidate in modern history. (And that’s considering Sarah Palin!)
Whether being excoriated for excessive weirdness, for misogyny, for racially tinged remarks, for utter insensitivity to victims of gun massacres, and for being a fake Hillbilly, Vance causes nothing but headaches for the GOP. Mike Pence at least came across as a nice guy, an amiable dunce at times, but he rose to the occasion when necessary, and stood with the Constitution.
Kamala and Tim Walz, on the other hand, are well-received by the American people. Trump and Vance have tried to stem the Blue surge with gutter-level attacks on Kamala’s race, her husband’s religion, Walz’s honorable service, even his developmentally disabled son. There’s no bottom to the cruelty of MAGA, and people are seeing that clearly.
Another major problem for the GOP: things are not nearly bad enough to cause a return to the bad old days of Trump. In fact, things are good and getting better every day: inflation at a forty year low, unemployment lowest since the 1960’s, market indexes at all time highs, retiree’s 401(k) plans rising through ceilings we never imagined, and interest rates about to come down. Yes, not everyone recovered equally, and people tend to forget higher prices are offset by significantly higher wages, but if Trump and the GOP are trying to persuade Americans that were better off under Trump, that’s a very, very difficult sell.
People are getting sick of the hate, the division, the cult craziness. Most Americans do not feel comfortable with homophobia, transphobia, immigrant-bashing, Jew hatred, racism, misogyny. We want to keep the government out of our personal decisions, like terminating pregnancies, reading books, watching drag shows (might even catch JD in one), who can marry who, and as a nation that is currently only 63% Christian and dropping by the day, we don’t want that or any other religion forced down our throats.
None of the above should be seen as a prediction. None of us have crystal balls, and none can say for certain who will win. What we can do is look at the landscape, ignoring the polls, taking stock of the critical factors, and determining who is in better shape in each of them.
By that measure, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are ahead and surging. There is still a debate, still sixty days in which anything could happen, and electoral history is replete with upsets and surprises.
I’d rather be where Kamala and Tim are right now, than were Trump and Vance find themselves.
THE TRUTH WILL WIN IF IT IS TOLD
And please check out my fiction. You can visit the Amazon Series Page for the acclaimed NJA Club Series: CLICK HERE
You can visit the Amazon page for Queensborough Rock, set amidst the NYC rock ’n’ roll world circa 1970. CLICK HERE
Visit my author website at www.stephenshaiken.com